European climate and weather events: Interpretation and attribution

General Information

Climate change is expected to impact extreme weather in Europe. There is therefore a clear need to adapt effectively to climate change, particularly in Europe, where recent heat waves, floods and droughts have demonstrated the vulnerability of European citizens to extreme weather. However, scientifically robust information about the extent to which recent extreme weather can be linked to climate variability and change is often lacking. There is therefore a clear need to develop better information on weather and climate risks as part of the operational capacities in the climate change context of GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security, now called COPERNICUS). EUCLEIA will develop the means to provide reliable information about weather and climate risks by developing a quasi-operational event attribution system for Europe. This system will be used to investigate heat waves, cold spells, floods, droughts and storm surges by means of developing a comprehensive set of diagnostics of the processes under study. It will provide well verified assessments of the extent to which such weather-related risks have changed due to human influences on climate. It will also identify those types of weather events where the science is still too uncertain to make a robust assessment of attributable risk. EUCLEIA will work closely with targeted stakeholder groups, including the insurance industry, regional managers and policy makers, general public and the legal field, to establish user requirements for event attribution products and to facilitate the development of climate attribution strategies. The attribution system developed by EUCLEIA will deliver reliable and user-relevant attribution assessments on a range of timescales; on a fast track basis in the immediate aftermath of extreme events, on a seasonal basis to stakeholder groups and annually to the scientifically prestigious annual attribution supplement of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Hereon will both lead the work package on “assessing detection and attribution through general public and stakeholder analysis” and will contribute to the test case on Baltic Sea storm surges.

EU-Programme Acronym and Subprogramme Area	FP7-SPACE-2013-1
Project Type	Collaborative Project
Contract Number	Grant Agreement 607085
Co-ordinator	MET Office, UK

Total Eligible Costs (€)	Hereon Eligible Costs (€)	EC Funding for Hereon (€)
3.461.345	383.066	287.299

Contact Person at Hereon

Prof. Dr. Hans von Storch, Institute of Coastal Research, KS Phone: +49 4152 87 1831 Fax: +49 4152 87 2832 E-mail contact

Participants

Danish Meteorological Institute (DK), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (CH), Fundacio Institut Catala De Ciencies Del Clima (ES), The Chancellor, Masters and Scholars of the University of Oxford (UK), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin en Yvelines (FR), University of Edinburgh (UK), University of Reading (UK)

Last Update: 16. April 2021