Socio-environmental systems
The dynamic and two-way relationship between changing environments and cultural changes is the subject of our research topic "Socio-environmental systems". For our research, we integrate archaeological, social, ecological, climate, economic and demographic data, and we use optimality-oriented behavioral model approaches such as agent-based and trait-based models.
Synchronization of population growth and climate stability for Europe, modified from Wirtz et al. (2024). Graphics: Wirtz/Hereon
We're intrigued by the question of how much influence climate has had on human populations. We identified that population growth and climate variability are quite synchronized globally and continentally (Wirtz et al., Nature Communications 2024). We found that climate instabilities modulated the European wave of advance of first agriculture (Lemmen et al. 2014), and that the periodicities found in the climate system showed a marked shift around 6000 years ago (Wirtz et al. 2010). We could link the deurbanization of the Indus Valley Civilization around 3000 years ago rather to social dynamics than climate triggers (Lemmen & Khan 2012). We developed the first model that describes regionally resolved and global prehistoric demography, land use and technology and explained the differential onsets of agriculture/herding during the Holocene around the globe, which later led to very delivery trajectories of cultural and technological evolution (Wirtz & Lemmen 2003).
- Wirtz et al. 2024 ... Multicentennial cycles
- Lemmen, C. and K. W. Wirtz (2014): On the sensitivity of the simulated Neolithic transition in Europe to climate extremes. J. Archeol. Sci. 51, 65-72, doi:10.1016/j.jas.2012.10.023
- Lemmen C. and A. Khan (2012) Geophysi. Monogr. Ser. 198, 107-114, doi:10.1029/2012GM001217
- Wirtz, K. W. and C. Lemmen (2003): A Global Dynamic Model for the Neolithic Transition. Climatic Change 59 (3), 333-367, doi:10.1023/A:1024858532005
Interactive simulator of the German coastal shrimp fishery. Graphics: Lemmen/Hereon
Coastal fisheries, and prominently the German shrimp fishery, are facing regulatory impediments to traditional operations, primarily from nature protection and offshore energy production. We built an interactive simulator for exploring scenarios of mitigation and adaption in shrimp fisheries (Lemmen et al. 2024). With this model, we will investigate the viability of this sector considering area closures, target and habitat shifts, and self-regulation pathways.
Forecasted SARS-CoV2 pandemic fatalities 2021-2022 contrasting a predictive model versus data (modified from Wirtz 2022). Graphics: Wirtz/Hereon
Trade-offs governed regulation and individual behaviour during the SARS-CoV2 pandemic. We formulated a model on social distancing emerging from choices accepting contraction of the disease versus accepting changes to ones lifestyle and could reliably predict for many regions of the world their mobility and mortality (Wirtz 2021).
Climate footprint of the different continents until 4000 years ago, modified from Lemmen (2010). Graphics: Lemmen/Hereon
The changing use of the landscape from hunting and gathering to agropastoralism has had feedbacks within society and has imprinted itself into the landscape and climate history. We quantified the ecological footprint of prehistoric societies to be 40 Gt (Lemmen 2010) and hindcasted the regional arrival and emergence of agropastoralism in Europe with fair precision (Lemmen et al. 2012) using the Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). We disentangled the spreading mechanism of agropastoralism in Europe (Lemmen 2015) and in North America (Lemmen 2014).
- Lemmen, C. (2010) Géomorphologie 2009 (4), 303-312, doi:10.4000/geomorphologie.7756
- Vannière, B., Blarquez, O., Rius, D., Doyen, E., Brücher, T., Colombaroli D., Connor S., Feurdean A., Hickler T., Lemmen, C., Leys B., Massa C., Olofsson J. (2016): 7000-year human legacy of elevation-dependent European fire regimes. Quat. Science Rev. 132, 206–212, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.11.012
- W. F. Ruddiman, D. Q. Fuller, J. E. Kutzbach, P. C. Tzedakis, J. O. Kaplan, E. C. Ellis, S. J. Vavrus, C. N. Roberts, R. Fyfe, F. He,C. Lemmen, J. Woodbridge (2016): Late Holocene climate: natural or anthropogenic? Rev. Geophys., 54(1), 93-118 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000503
- C. Lemmen (2015): Cultural and Demic Diffusion of First Farmers, Herders, and their Innovations Across Eurasia. Documenta Praehistorica 42, 93–102, https://doi.org/10.4312/dp.42.5
- Kaplan, J.O., C. Lemmen et al. (2011) Holocene 21 (5), 775--791, doi:10.1177/0959683610386983
- C. Lemmen and D. Gronenborn (2018): The Diffusion of Humans and Cultures in the Course of the Spread of Farming. Chapter 19 in: Diffusive Spreading in Nature, Technology and Society. A. Bunde, J. Caro, J. Kärger, G. Vogl (Eds.). Springer Fundamentals, 333-349, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-67798-9_17
- Gronenborn, D., Strien, H.C., Lemmen, C.: Population Dynamics, Social Resilience Strategies, and Adaptive Cycles in Early Farming Societies of SW Central Europe, Quaternary International (2017), 446, 54-65, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2017.01.018
- Lemmen, C. (2016): Menschgemachter Klimawandel schon vor 3000 Jahren? Das frühe Anthropozän. In: Busch, R. “Die erste Geesthachterin und ihre Zeit — neue Indizien und Erkenntnisse nach 3.000 Jahren. Die Frau aus dem Totenhaus von Grünhof-Tesperhude”, GeesthachtMuseum!, 35–47
- C. Lemmen (2015): Gradient adaptive dynamics describes innovation and resilience at the society scale. Chap- ter 22, 405–415, in: “Mathematics in Archaeology”, edited by J.A. Barcelo, Taylor & Francis, https://doi.org/10.1201/b18530-26
- C. Lemmen, K. Haberkorn, R. Blender, K. Fraedrich, and K. W. Wirtz (2015): Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulations to Quantify Interactions between Climate and Pre-industrial Cultures, in: Integrated Analysis of Interglacial Climate Dynamics, edited by M. Schulz and A. Paul., 103–108, Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-00693-2_17
- Lemmen, C. (2014): Boserup and Malthus at work in a global model of the transitions to agriculture. In: Ester Boserup’s Legacy on Sustainability: Orientations for Contemporary Research, Chapter 6, edited by M. Fischer-Kowalski, Springer, Vienna, Austria doi:10.1007/978-94-017-8678-2_6
- Lemmen, C. and K. W. Wirtz (2014): On the sensitivity of the simulated Neolithic transition in Europe to climate extremes. J. Archeol. Sci. 51, 65-72 doi:10.1016/j.jas.2012.10.023
- Lemmen, K. Haberkorn, R. Blender, K. Fraedrich, and K. W. Wirtz (2014): Global Land Use and technolog- ical Evolution Simulations to Quantify Interactions between Climate and Pre-industrial Cultures, in: Integrated Analysis of Interglacial Climate Dynamics (INTERDYNAMIC), edited by A. Paul et al., SpringerBriefs in Earth Syste Sciences, pp 103-108 doi:10.1007/978-3-319-00693-2_17
- Lemmen, C. (2013), Different mechanisms shaped the transition to farming in Europe and the North American Woodland. Archaeol. Ethnogr. Anthropol. Eurasia 41 (3), also published in Russian language in volume 35 (3), pp 48–58, doi:10.1016/j.aeae.2014.03.007
- Kaplan, J.O., K.M. Krumhardt, E.C. Ellis, W.F. Ruddiman, C. Lemmen and K. Klein-Goldewijk (2011): Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change, Holocene 21 (5), 775–791, doi:10.1177/0959683610386983
- Lemmen, C., D. Gronenborn and K.W. Wirtz (2011): A simulation of the Neolithic transition in Western Eurasia. J. Archaeol. Sci. 38, 3459–3470, doi:10.1016/j.jas.2011.08.008
- Gaillard, M.-J., S. Sugita, F. Mazier, A.-K. Trondman, A. Broström, T. Hickler, J.O. Kaplan, E. Kjellström, U. Kokfelt, P. Kuneš, C.Lemmen, P. Miller J. Olofsson, A. Poska, M. Rundgren, B. Smith, G. Strandberg, R. Fyfe, A.B. Nielsen, T. Alenius, L. Balakauskas, L. Barnekow, H.J.B. Birks, A. Bjune, L. Björkman, T. Giesecke, K. Hjelle, L. Kalnina, M. Kangur, W.O. van der Knaap, T. Koff, P. Lagerås, M. Latlałowa, M. Leydet, J. Lechterbeck, M. Lindbladh, B. Odgaard, S. Peglar, U. Segerström, H. Stedingk and H. Seppä (2010): Holocene land-cover reconstructions for studies on land cover-climate feedbacks. Clim. Past 6 (4), 483–499, doi:10.5194/cp-6-483-2010
- Lemmen, C. and K. W. Wirtz (2010): Socio-technological revolutions and migration waves re-examining early world history with a mathematical model. In: The Spread of the Neolithic to Central Europe, D. Gronenborn and J. Petrasch (Ed.), RGZM Tagungen, 2010
- Lemmen, C. (2010): World distribution of land cover changes during Pre- and Protohistoric Times and estimation of induced carbon releases. Géomorphologie : relief, processus, environnement, 2009 (4), 303-312, doi:10.4000/geomorphologie.7756
- Wirtz,K., K. Bernhardt, G .Lohmann and C. Lemmen(2010): Mid-Holoceneregional reorganization of climate variability: Analyses of proxy data in the frequency domain. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 298 (3–4), 189–200, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.09.019
- Wirtz, K. W. and C. Lemmen (2003): A Global Dynamic Model for the Neolithic Transition. Climatic Change 59 (3), 333-367, doi:10.1023/A:1024858532005