%0 journal article %@ 0967-0645 %A Bellou, N., Garcia, J.A.L., Colijn, F., Herndl, G.J. %D 2020 %J Deep-Sea Research Part II %P 104703 %R doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2019.104703 %T Seasonality combined with the orientation of surfaces influences the microbial community structure of biofilms in the deep Mediterranean Sea %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2019.104703 %X Attachment to surfaces represents an important life strategy for microbial communities as indicated by the rapid colonization of biotic and abiotic surfaces in marine waters. However, little attention has been paid to the development of biofilm-associated microbial communities and the environmental parameters influencing biofilm development in the deep sea. In this study, a deep-sea experimental setup was used to follow the development of the microbial community colonizing solid surfaces deployed at 4500 m depth at the deepest point of the Mediterranean Sea. The experiment was performed during summer (May to October 2007) and winter (October 2007–May 2008), each lasting for 155 d. The phylogenetic composition of the biofilm community was determined by tag sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. We investigated whether the composition of the deep-sea microbial biofilms is influenced by seasonality. Based on tag sequencing, operational taxonomic units were identified and diversity indices calculated. Seasonality combined with the orientation of the solid surface on which the biofilms were growing was the main factor influencing the structure of the microbial community. The most abundant phyla of deep-sea biofilm communities attached to the solid surfaces were Gammaproteobacteria (range: 10.8%–92.6%), Alphaproteobacteria (range: 34.9%–92.6%) and Betaproteobacteria (range: 0.3%–2.1%), irrespective of the variables (surface, orientation, season). Flavobacteria and Epsilonbacteria show a clear preference with respect to the orientation of the deployed surfaces during the winter, however, they were essentially absent at the surfaces during the summer. Some bacterial classes such as Campylobacterales and Rhodobacterales showed distinct preferences for specific seasons or orientation of the substrate. Taken together, we conclude that even on deep-sea biofilms, there is to some extent seasonality detectable in the composition of the surface associated prokaryotic community, despite the fact that the deep-sea is, in terms of physico-chemical parameters, a fairly stable environment. %0 journal article %@ 1436-3798 %A Jacob, D., Teichmann, C., Sobolowski, S., Katragkou, E., Anders, I., Belda, M., Benestad, R., Boberg, F., Buonomo, E., Cardoso, R.M., Casanueva, A., Christensen, O.B., Christensen, J.H., Coppola, E., De Cruz, L., Davin, E.L., Dobler, A., Domínguez, M., Fealy, R., Fernandez, J., Gaertner, M.A., García-Díez, M., Giorgi, F., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Gómez-Navarro, J.J., Alemán, J.J.G., Gutiérrez, C., Gutiérrez, J.M., Güttler, I., Haensler, A., Halenka, T., Jerez, S., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Jones, R.G., Keuler, K., Kjellström, E., Knist, S., Kotlarski, S., Maraun, D., van Meijgaard, E., Mercogliano, P., Montávez, J.P., Navarra, A., Nikulin, G., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Panitz, H.-J., Pfeifer, S., Piazza, M., Pichelli, E., Pietikäinen, J.-P., Prein, A.F., Preuschmann, S., Rechid, D., Rockel, B., Romera, R., Sánchez, E., Sieck, K., Soares, P.M.M., Somot, S., Srnec, L., Sørland, S.L., Termonia, P., Truhetz, H., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V. %D 2020 %J Regional Environmental Change %N 2 %P 51 %R doi:10.1007/s10113-020-01606-9 %T Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community %U https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01606-9 2 %X The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe. %0 journal article %@ 1862-4065 %A Mechler, R., Singh, C., Ebi, C., Djalante, R., Thomas, A., James, R., Tschakert, P., Wewerinke-Singh, M., Schink, T., Ley, D., Nalau, J., Bouwer, L., Huggel, C., Huq, S., Linnerooth Bayer, J., Surminski, S., Pinho, P., Jones, R., Boyd, E., Revi, A. %D 2020 %J Sustainability Science %P 1245-1251 %R doi:10.1007/s11625-020-00807-9 %T Loss and Damage and limits to adaptation: recent IPCC insights and implications for climate science and policy %U https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-020-00807-9 %X Recent evidence shows that climate change is leading to irreversible and existential impacts on vulnerable communities and countries across the globe. Among other effects, this has given rise to public debate and engagement around notions of climate crisis and emergency. The Loss and Damage (L&D) policy debate has emphasized these aspects over the last three decades. Yet, despite institutionalization through an article on L&D by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the Paris Agreement, the debate has remained vague, particularly with reference to its remit and relationship to adaptation policy and practice. Research has recently made important strides forward in terms of developing a science perspective on L&D. This article reviews insights derived from recent publications by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and others, and presents the implications for science and policy. Emerging evidence on hard and soft adaptation limits in certain systems, sectors and regions holds the potential to further build momentum for climate policy to live up to the Paris ambition of stringent emission reductions and to increase efforts to support the most vulnerable. L&D policy may want to consider actions to extend soft adaptation limits and spur transformational, that is, non-standard risk management and adaptation, so that limits are not breached. Financial, technical, and legal support would be appropriate for instances where hard limits are transgressed. Research is well positioned to further develop robust evidence on critical and relevant risks at scale in the most vulnerable countries and communities, as well as options to reduce barriers and limits to adaptation. %0 journal article %@ 1991-959X %A Beluši , D., de Vries, H., Dobler, A., Landgren, O., Lindt, P., Lindstedt, D., Pedersen, R., Sánchez-Perrino, J., Toivonen, E., van Ulft, B., Wang, F., Andrae, U., Batrak, Y., Kjellström, E., Lenderink, G., Nikulin, G., Pietikäinen, J., Rodríguez-Camino, E., Samuelsson, P., van Meijgaard, E., Wu, M. %D 2020 %J Geoscientific Model Development %N 3 %P 1311-1333 %R doi:10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020 %T HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales %U https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020 3 %X HCLIM is developed by a consortium of national meteorological institutes in close collaboration with the ALADIN–HIRLAM NWP model development. While the current HCLIM cycle has considerable differences in model setup compared to the NWP version (primarily in the description of the surface), it is planned for the next cycle release that the two versions will use a very similar setup. This will ensure a feasible and timely climate model development as well as updates in the future and provide an evaluation of long-term model biases to both NWP and climate model developers. %0 journal article %@ 2405-8807 %A Parding, K.M., Dobler, A., McSweeney, C.F., Landgren, O.A., Benestad, R., Erlandsen, H.B., Mezghani, A., Gregow, H., Räty, O., Viktor, E., El Zohbi, J., Christensen, O.B., Loukos, H. %D 2020 %J Climate Services %P 100167 %R doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100167 %T GCMeval – An interactive tool for evaluation and selection of climate model ensembles %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100167 %X We present an interactive tool for selection and evaluation of global climate models. The tool is implemented as a web application using the ”Shiny” R-package and is available at https://gcmeval.met.no. Through this tool, climate models of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles can be ranked and compared based on their representation of the present climate, with user-determined weights indicating the importance of different regions, seasons, climate variables, and skill scores. The ranking can be used to eliminate the climate models with poorest representation of the present climate. As further guidance, the projected regional mean temperature and precipitation changes for all climate models are displayed in a scatterplot for a chosen season, emission scenario, and time horizon. Ranks and projected changes for a subset of climate models are compared to the whole ensemble. Subsets can be selected interactively and the tool provides on-the-fly visualizations. The combined information of the projected climate change and model ranking can be used as an aid to select subsets of climate models that adequately represent both the present day climate and the range of possible future outcomes. Allowing weighting of different metrics introduces a subjective element in the evaluation process and demonstrates how this can affect the ranking. The tool also illustrates how the range of projected future climate change is sensitive to the choice of models. %0 journal article %@ 2405-8807 %A Perrels, A., Le, T.-T., Cortekar, J., Hoa, E., Stegmaier, P. %D 2020 %J Climate Services %P 100153 %R doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100153 %T How much unnoticed merit is there in climate services? %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100153 %X The European Union and a growing number of its Member States have become active in promoting and funding the development and to some extent deployment of climate services. Despite significant progress in the creation of large high-quality open access repositories of basic climate data and despite the growing number of pilot projects with more tailored co-designed climate services for various sectors, no real breakthrough in the uptake of climate services has been witnessed. Two projects EU-MACS and MARCO, funded from the EU H2020 programme, assessed what the obstacles to uptake were and how these could be alleviated. This article discusses main outcomes from these projects, with special attention for the need to better underpin the concept of climate services and the justification to promote their use, e.g. by means of the merit good concept. The projects also identified the need for a climate services market observatory. Other articles in the same special issue provide more in-depth insights regarding several subjects. %0 journal article %@ 0048-9697 %A Gómez Martín, E., Giordano, R., Pagano, A., van der Keur, P., Máñez Costa, M. %D 2020 %J Science of the Total Environment %P 139693 %R doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139693 %T Using a system thinking approach to assess the contribution of nature based solutions to sustainable development goals %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139693 %X Climate change and the overexploitation of natural resources increase the need to integrate sustainable development policies at both national and international levels to fit the demands of a growing population. In 2015 the United Nations (UN) established the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development with the aim of eradicating extreme poverty, reducing inequality and protecting the planet. The Agenda 2030 highlights the importance of biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems to maintain economic activities and the well-being of local communities. Nature Based Solutions (NBS) support biodiversity conservation and the functioning of ecosystems. NBS are increasingly seen as innovative solutions to manage water-related risks while transforming natural capital into a source of green growth and sustainable development. In this context, NBS could potentially contribute to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by promoting the delivery of bundles of ecosystem services together generating various social, economic and environmental co-benefits. However, to achieve the full potential of NBS, it is necessary to recognize the trade-offs and synergies of the co-benefits associated with their implementation. To this aim, we have adopted a system perspective and a multi-sectoral approach to analyse the potential of NBS to deliver co-benefits while at the same time reducing the negative effects of water-related hazards. Using the case study of Copenhagen, we have analysed the relationships between the co-benefits associated with the scenario of the restoration of the Ladegaardsaa urban river. Our hypothesis is that enhancing the understanding of the social, economic and environmental factors of the system, including mutual influences and trade-offs, could improve the decision-making process and thereby enhance the capability of NBS to contribute to the achievement of the SDGs. %0 journal article %@ 0262-6667 %A Kreibich, H., Blauhut, V., Aerts, J., Bouwer, L., Van Lanen, H., Mejia, A., Mens, M., Van Loon, A. %D 2020 %J Hydrological Sciences Journal %N 3 %P 481-494 %R doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1701194 %T Approaches to analyse and model changes in impacts: reply to discussions of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts” %U https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1701194 3 %X We thank the authors, Brunella Bonaccorso and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen for their constructive contributions to the discussion about the attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts. We appreciate that they support our opinion, but in particular their additional new ideas on how to better understand changes in impacts. It is great that they challenge us to think a step further on how to foster the collection of long time series of data and how to use these to model and project changes. Here, we elaborate on the possibility to collect time series of data on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts and how these could be used to improve e.g. socio-hydrological models for the development of future risk scenarios. %0 journal article %@ 1992-0636 %A Steuri, B., Blome, T., Bülow, K., El Zohbi, J., Hoffmann, P., Petersen, J., Pfeifer, S., Rechid, D., Jacob, D. %D 2020 %J Advances in Science and Research %P 9-17 %R doi:10.5194/asr-17-9-2020 %T Behind the scenes of an interdisciplinary effort: conception, design and production of a flyer on climate change for the citizens of Hamburg %U https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-9-2020 %X The goal of an interdisciplinary team of scientists at the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) was to make the findings of the special report IPCC SR1.5 more accessible to the citizens of Hamburg. Therefore, a flyer was created that is understandable to non-climate scientists, visually attractive and generates interest. It contains up-to-date climate information, readily understandable texts and several graphical visualisations. The team has been working intensively on analysing and processing further the consequences of a 1.5 ∘C global warming for the Hamburg metropolitan region. While the team's natural scientists elaborated the impacts on specific climate indices, other team members focused on the visualisation and communication of the results. %0 editorial %@ 2405-8807 %A Le, T., Perrels, A., Cortekar, J. %D 2020 %J Climate Services %P 100149 %R doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100149 %T European climate services markets – Conditions, challenges, prospects, and examples %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100149 %X %0 journal article %@ 2328-4277 %A Williams, D., Celliers, L., Unverzagt, K., Videira, N., Máñez Costa, M., Giordano, R. %D 2020 %J Earth’s Future %N 7 %P e2020EF001506 %R doi:10.1029/2020EF001506 %T A Method for Enhancing Capacity of Local Governance for Climate Change Adaptation %U https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001506 7 %X The lack of capacity for climate change adaptation at the subnational level has been highlighted as a key barrier to implementing the UNFCCC National Adaptation Plans. At the same time, the adaptive capacity of local governance is highly context sensitive, making a “one‐size fits all” approach inappropriate. Thus, a versatile methodological approach for application in various local contexts is required. There are several indicator‐based local governance assessment methods for evaluating the effectiveness of local governance for climate change adaptation. However, they fall short of identifying and prioritizing between key factors within local governance for enhancing adaptive capacity and driving positive change. Building on adaptation theory, the authors propose combining two methodological approaches, the Capital Approach Framework for evaluating the adaptive capacity of local governance and Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping for identifying leverage points, into one integrated modeling approach, which can be applied by local researchers. This paper describes the process and benefits of combining the methodological approaches, with an example provided as supporting information. Assisting decision‐makers and policy planners from subnational governance in identifying leverage points to focus and maximize impact of capacity‐enhancing measures would make a key contribution for successful implementation of the UNFCCC National Adaptation Plans. %0 journal article %@ 2212-0955 %A Steuri, B., Bender, S., Cortekar, J. %D 2020 %J Urban Climate %P 100630 %R doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100630 %T Successful user-science interaction to co-develop the new urban climate model PALM-4U %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100630 %X Living labs are platforms that gather all relevant stakeholders and, hereby, support a systematic user-science interaction. Both stakeholders from urban planning practice and model developers provide crucial input to the successful co-development of a scientifically-based and practicable urban climate model. Consequently, it is important that both contribute on an equal footing. To ensure this equality, UseUClim acts as a neutral intermediary between the two. Throughout the project it became apparent, that key success factors are clear and transparent communication flows as well as a common understanding of the project goals. %0 journal article %@ 1752-7457 %A Williams, D., Rosendo, S., Sadasing, O., Celliers, L. %D 2020 %J Climate policy %N 5 %P 548-562 %R doi:10.1080/14693062.2020.1745743 %T Identifying local governance capacity needs for implementing climate change adaptation in Mauritius %U https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1745743 5 %X The IPCC 1.5°C Report lists identifying local capacity needs as key for enabling multi-level governance to effectively respond to climate change. Mauritius, as a Small Island State, is disproportionately affected by climate change, primarily due to its exposure to impacts, as well as various constraints in size and resources. Identifying and integrating local capacity needs into recommendations for policy measures is therefore urgently required to support the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its National Adaptation Plan process. This study carries out a local governance assessment based on evaluative criteria to identify local capacity needs for implementing climate change adaptation in Mauritius. Results from the assessment indicate that local governance suffers from issues inherent to Small Island States, such as lack of technical know-how, financial and human resources, stringent legislation and effective monitoring mechanisms, preventing effective climate change adaptation. Through participatory, bottom-up stakeholder engagement with local and national government representatives, eight recommendations for policy formulation were then co-developed to address the identified capacity needs, and to improve cooperation between local and national institutions for more effective implementation of climate change adaptation. %0 journal article %@ 2405-8807 %A Rölfer, L., Winter, G., Máñez Costa, M., Celliers, L. %D 2020 %J Climate Services %P 100168 %R doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100168 %T Earth observation and coastal climate services for small islands %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100168 %X The workshop on Earth Observation and Coastal Climate Services for Small Islands, held in Guadeloupe in November 2019, brought together 35 participants constituting stakeholders predominantly from the Caribbean with representation from the Pacific and Indian Ocean region, as well as providers of climate and earth observation services. The workshop was jointly organized by the Climate Service Center Germany – Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht and the University of the French Antilles in Guadeloupe. The aims of the workshop were to: (1) recognize the common challenges and data needs of small islands in relation to risk reduction and climate change adaptation; (2) identify development needs for additional data services; and (3) identify useful methods for the dissemination of such services. The workshop format combined participatory methods, individual presentations, plenary discussions and group work. The presentations highlighted regionally (for the Caribbean) and globally available data sources as well as location specific case studies. %0 journal article %@ 1463-5003 %A Kovalevsky, D., Bashmachnikov, I., Alekseev, G. %D 2020 %J Ocean Modelling %P 101583 %R doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101583 %T Formation and decay of a deep convective chimney %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101583 %X For a given set of the background conditions, a chimney can be considered a mature one after two characteristic time scales of the deepening phase are reached. A mature chimney needs a longer time for its formation, but decays more rapidly than a pre-mature one. The minimum overall chimney lifetime corresponds to the case, when, at about one characteristic time scale of the deepening phase, the sea-surface buoyancy loss abruptly drops down and the restratification phase begins. %0 journal article %@ 2072-4292 %A Vannoppen, A., Gobin, A., Kotova, L., Top, S., De Cruz, L., Viksna, A., Aniskevich, S., Bobylev, L., Buntemeyer, L., Caluwaerts, S., De Troch, R., Gnatiuk, N., Hamdi, R., Reca Remedio, A., Sakalli, A., Van De Vyver, H., Van Schaeybroeck, B., Termonia, P. %D 2020 %J Remote Sensing %N 14 %P 2206 %R doi:10.3390/rs12142206 %T Wheat Yield Estimation from NDVI and Regional Climate Models in Latvia %U https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12142206 14 %X Wheat yield variability will increase in the future due to the projected increase in extreme weather events and long-term climate change effects. Currently, regional agricultural statistics are used to monitor wheat yield. Remotely sensed vegetation indices have a higher spatio-temporal resolution and could give more insight into crop yield. In this paper, we (i) evaluate the possibility to use Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series to estimate wheat yield in Latvia and (ii) determine which weather variables impact wheat yield changes using both ALARO-0 and REMO Regional Climate Models (RCM) output. The integral from NDVI series (aNDVI) for winter and spring wheat fields is used as a predictor to model regional wheat yield from 2014 to 2018. A correlation analysis between weather variables, wheat yield and aNDVI was used to elucidate which weather variables impact wheat yield changes in Latvia. Our results indicate that high temperatures in June for spring wheat and in July for winter wheat had a negative correlation with yield. A linear regression yield model explained 71% of the variability with a residual standard error of 0.55 Mg/ha. When RCM data were added as predictor variables to the wheat yield empirical model a random forest approach resulted in better results compared to a linear regression approach, the explained variance increased up to 97% and the residual standard error decreased to 0.17 Mg/ha. We conclude that NDVI time series and RCM output enabled regional crop yield and weather impact monitoring at higher spatio-temporal resolutions than regional statistics. %0 journal article %@ 0177-7971 %A Steppeler, J., Li, J., Fang, F., Navon, M. %D 2020 %J Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics %P 703-719 %R doi:10.1007/s00703-019-00718-0 %T Third-order sparse grid generalized spectral elements on hexagonal cells for uniform-speed advection in a plane %U https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-019-00718-0 %X This paper investigates sparse grids on a hexagonal cell structure using a Local-Galerkin method (LGM) or generalized spectral element method (SEM). Such methods allow sparse grids to be used, known as serendipity grids in square cells. This means that not all points of the full grid are used. Using a high-order polynomial, some points of each cell are eliminated in the discretization, and thus saving Central Processing Unit (CPU) time. Here a sparse SEM scheme is proposed for hexagonal cells. It uses a representation of fields by second-order polynomials and achieves third-order accuracy. As SEM, LGM is strictly local for explicit time integration. This makes LGM more suitable for multiprocessing computers compared with classical Galerkin methods. The computer time depends on the possible timestep and program implementation. Assuming that these do not change when going to a sparse grid, the potential saving of computer time due to sparseness is 1:2. The projected CPU saving in 3-D from sparseness is by a factor of 3:8. A new spectral procedure is used in this paper, called the implied spectral equation (ISE). This procedure allows for some collocation points to use any finite difference scheme of high order and the time derivatives of other spectral coefficients are implied. %0 book part %@ 1610-2010 %A Bender, S., Cortekar, J., Groth, M., Sieck, K. %D 2020 %J Handbook of Climate Services %P 67-83 %R doi:10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3 %T Why There Is More to Adaptation Than Creating a Strategy %U https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3 %X Decision makers in cities and urban areas are key implementers of policy steps to meet the goal of curbing global warming to 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. This needs strong political leadership as well as major transitions in how both mitigation and adaptation are undertaken. However, as simple as adaptation to climate impacts can sound at the beginning, as difficult it becomes when working on it. Adaptation to climate change in urban areas is a complex process with mostly small scope for action. It requires the synthesis and integration of different approaches, methods, tools, interests and stakeholder engagement, all inside a rigid administrative and legal framework. The potential for an effective climate risk management including multiple sector-oriented adaptation actions is increased by combining local environmental and social information with regional projected climate impacts as well as different scales of potential risks. To positively influence the quality of life and the resilience of infrastructure in the future, it is necessary to consider first all possible impacts in planning and design processes in a strategy. Furthermore, the theoretical and legal framing needs to be transferred into operational adaptation actions. Thereby, the role of climate services will be further developed in a field currently still characterised by specific need for research. %0 journal article %@ 2190-4979 %A Davin, E., Rechid, D., Breil, M., Cardoso, R., Coppola, E., Hoffmann, P., Jach, L., Katragkou, E., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Radtke, K., Raffa, M., Soares, P., Sofiadis, G., Strada, S., Strandberg, G., Tölle, M., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V. %D 2020 %J Earth System Dynamics %N 1 %P 183-200 %R doi:10.5194/esd-11-183-2020 %T Biogeophysical impacts of forestation in Europe: first results from the LUCAS (Land Use and Climate Across Scales) regional climate model intercomparison %U https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-183-2020 1 %X The Land Use and Climate Across Scales Flagship Pilot Study (LUCAS FPS) is a coordinated community effort to improve the integration of land use change (LUC) in regional climate models (RCMs) and to quantify the biogeophysical effects of LUC on local to regional climate in Europe. In the first phase of LUCAS, nine RCMs are used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of re-/afforestation over Europe: two idealized experiments representing respectively a non-forested and a maximally forested Europe are compared in order to quantify spatial and temporal variations in the regional climate sensitivity to forestation. We find some robust features in the simulated response to forestation. In particular, all models indicate a year-round decrease in surface albedo, which is most pronounced in winter and spring at high latitudes. This results in a winter warming effect, with values ranging from +0.2 to +1 K on average over Scandinavia depending on models. However, there are also a number of strongly diverging responses. For instance, there is no agreement on the sign of temperature changes in summer with some RCMs predicting a widespread cooling from forestation (well below −2 K in most regions), a widespread warming (around +2 K or above in most regions) or a mixed response. A large part of the inter-model spread is attributed to the representation of land processes. In particular, differences in the partitioning of sensible and latent heat are identified as a key source of uncertainty in summer. Atmospheric processes, such as changes in incoming radiation due to cloud cover feedbacks, also influence the simulated response in most seasons. In conclusion, the multi-model approach we use here has the potential to deliver more robust and reliable information to stakeholders involved in land use planning, as compared to results based on single models. However, given the contradictory responses identified, our results also show that there are still fundamental uncertainties that need to be tackled to better anticipate the possible intended or unintended consequences of LUC on regional climates. %0 journal article %@ 0027-8424 %A Otto, I., Donges, J., Cremades, R., Bhowmik, A., Hewitt, R.J., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Allerberger, F., McCaffrey, M., Doe, S.S.P., Lenferna, A., Morán, N., van Vuuren, D.P., Schellnhuber, H.J. %D 2020 %J Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America: PNAS %N 5 %P 2354-2365 %R doi:10.1073/pnas.1900577117 %T Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050 %U https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900577117 5 %X Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth’s climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation. %0 journal article %@ 0921-8009 %A Otto, I., Wiedermann, M., Cremades, R., Donges, J., Auer, C., Lucht, W. %D 2020 %J Ecological Economics %P 106463 %R doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106463 %T Human agency in the Anthropocene %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106463 %X The human species has been recognized as a new force that has pushed the Earth's system into a new geological epoch referred to as the Anthropocene. This human influence was not conscious, however, but an unintended effect of the consumption of fossil-fuels over the last 150 years. Do we, humans, have the agency to deliberately influence the fate of our species and the planet we inhabit? The rational choice paradigm that dominated social sciences in the 20th Century, and has heavily influenced the conceptualization of human societies in global human-environmental system modelling in the early 21st Century, suggests a very limited view of human agency. Humans seen as rational agents, coordinated through market forces, have only a very weak influence on the system rules. In this article we explore alternative concepts of human agency that emphasize its collective and strategic dimensions as well as we ask how human agency is distributed within the society. We also explore the concept of social structure as a manifestation of, and a constraint on, human agency. We discuss the implications for conceptualization of human agency in integrated assessment modelling efforts. %0 book part %@ 1610-2010 %A Zahid, M., El Zohbi, J., Viktor, E., Rechid, D., Schuck-Zöller, S., Keup-Thiel, E., Jacob, D. %D 2020 %J Handbook of Climate Services %P 183-201 %R doi:10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3_10 %T Evaluation of Climate Services: Enabling Users to Assess the Quality of Multi-model Climate Projections and Derived Products %U https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3_10 %X The core of climate services is to provide high quality climate-related information and data that are beneficial for the users. Between the provision of data and the application of climate services, a chain of providers and subsequent users exists. It is an ongoing challenge for providers to conclusively define what users perceive as beneficial regarding the quality of climate model output. This study aims (1) to understand the needs of users with regard to the quality of climate data and information, and (2) to enable providers to assess the quality of climate data input and derived products. From a large-scale survey, we distilled three main user groups: (i) Donna data (data user/product provider), (ii) Pete product (product user/product provider) and (iii) Nick non (potential-user). The survey results show that all three user groups struggle—amongst other things—with identifying reliable climate model output, that is relevant to their needs. They also desire guidance on how to evaluate the quality of climate model data to determine the suitability of the selected dataset for their purpose. Addressing this central need is breaking new ground. The evaluation of quality in the field of climate services in terms of climate model output is of high relevance to both climate model data users and providers of tailored climate information and not restricted to scientific standards and technical quality. We present a customized and tested tool (“QUACK”) as one of the first hands-on, scientifically-based and at the same time user-oriented guidelines on how to assure data quality and to self-evaluate the processing of the data. %0 book part %@ 2510-0475 %A Pettersson, L., Kjelaas, A., Kovalevsky, D., Hasselmann, K. %D 2020 %J Sea Ice in the Arctic: Past; Present and Future %P 465-506 %R doi:10.1007/978-3-030-21301-5_11 %T Climate Change Impact on the Arctic Economy %U https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-21301-5_11 %X The present chapter provides a brief overview of the projected climate change impact on several key economic sectors in the Arctic: marine transportation, offshore oil and gas industry, and fisheries. %0 journal article %@ 0165-0009 %A Gulizia, C., Langendijk, Gaby, Huang-Lachmann, J., de Amorim Borges, P., Flach, R., Githaiga, C., Rahimi, M. %D 2020 %J Climatic Change %P 75-85 %R doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02604-5 %T Towards a more integrated role for early career researchers in the IPCC process %U https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02604-5 %X The involvement of early career researchers (ECRs) has been limited during the past Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment cycles. We conducted a global survey among ECRs and interviewed key experts of the IPCC process. Our results show that ECRs are highly motivated to become actively involved in the IPCC process but face a number of barriers to contribute. Mutually beneficial ways forward on how ECRs could contribute are outlined here, and recommendations to implement these paths are suggested to IPCC as well as to ECRs. Concluding, we show that ECRs have great potential to actively contribute to the IPCC process for the continuity of the IPCC as well as to climate science in general. %0 journal article %@ 0177-798X %A Zhu, S., Remedio, A., Sein, D., Sielmann, F., Ge, F., Xu, J., Peng, T., Jacob, D., Fraedrich, K., Zhi, X. %D 2020 %J Theoretical and Applied Climatology %P 375-387 %R doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03093-8 %T Added value of the regionally coupled model ROM in the East Asian summer monsoon modeling %U https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03093-8 %X The performance of the regional atmosphere-ocean coupled model ROM (REMO-OASIS-MPIOM) is compared with its atmospheric component REMO in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the time period 1980–2012 with the following results being obtained. (1) The REMO model in the standalone configuration with the prescribed sea surface conditions produces stronger low-level westerlies associated with the South Asian summer monsoon, an eastward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and a wetter lower troposphere, which jointly lead to moisture pathways characterized by stronger westerlies with convergence eastward to the western North Pacific (WNP). As a consequence, the simulated precipitation in REMO is stronger over the ocean and weaker over the East Asian continent than in the observational datasets. (2) Compared with the REMO results, lower sea surface temperatures (SSTs) feature the ROM simulation with enhanced air-sea exchanges from the intensified low-level winds over the subtropical WNP, generating an anomalous low-level anticyclone and hence improving simulations of the low-level westerlies and WPSH. With lower SSTs, ROM produces less evaporation over the ocean, inducing a drier lower troposphere. As a result, the precipitation simulated by ROM is improved over the East Asian continent but with dry biases over the WNP. (3) Both models perform fairly well for the upper level circulation. In general, compared with the standalone REMO model, ROM improves simulations of the circulation associated with the moisture transport in the lower- to mid-troposphere and reproduces the observed EASM characteristics, demonstrating the advantages of the regionally coupled model ROM in regions where air-sea interactions are highly relevant for the East Asian climate. %0 journal article %@ 0165-0009 %A Haasnoot, M., Van Aalst, M., Rozenberg, J., Dominique, K., Matthews, J., Bouwer, L., Kind, J., Poff, N. %D 2020 %J Climatic Change %P 451-463 %R doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02409-6 %T Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways %U https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02409-6 %X Investment decisions about capital-intensive, long-lived infrastructure are challenging due to uncertainty about their future performance, particularly if the performance is sensitive to climate change. Such investments, like those made for water infrastructure, are rarely evaluated over their total operational lifetime, during which socio-economic and environmental changes can cause potential lock-ins and reduced options for future choices that lead to high costs to transfer to other options. We propose an economic evaluation framework to explore adaptation pathways, or sequences of strategic investments options, that can be implemented if needed due to changing conditions. A novel feature is the inclusion of “transfer costs” associated with a switch to alternative pathways to allow adaptive decision-making and to minimize the cost of adjustment over time. Implementing a pathway-driven approach represents a break with most institutional decision-making processes and can significantly improve decision-making under uncertainty compared to the conventional single-investment perspective. We present a case study on flood risk management in the Netherlands to show the long-term socio-economic consequences of short-term decisions by going beyond the project cycle horizon. %0 journal article %@ 0964-5691 %A Celliers, L., Rosendo, S., Máñez Costa, M., Ojwang, L., Carmona, M., Obura, D. %D 2020 %J Ocean and Coastal Management %P 104996 %R doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.104996 %T A capital approach for assessing local coastal governance %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.104996 %X The importance of local government for addressing environmental change, including climate change, was recognized at the 1992 Earth Summit. More so, coastal governance encompasses not only the actions of the state (which includes local governments), but also of other actors such as communities, businesses and civil society organizations. Solutions to improving coastal governance include the implementation of Integrated Coastal Management which also serves as means to plan and achieve climate change adaptation. This paper proposes the establishment of a framework and methodology to assess local coastal governance based on a composite of hierarchical metrics formed by different forms of capital and associated factors and indicators. The application of this methodology resulted in the description of a baseline for local coastal governance. This baseline is useful for informing different functional levels within local government, e.g. technical, managerial and political. The baseline consisted of a comprehensive assessment of the different forms of capitals furthered categorized by factors and measured by indicators of local coastal governance. The capitals approach and method for measuring governance is potentially repeatable and can identify progress towards longer-term coastal management and climate adaptation goals as well as areas requiring improvements. Ultimately, it can be developed into a self-assessment tool to help local government to think reflexively about how they are managing the coast and the climate risks impacting on coastal assets and people. %0 journal article %@ 2405-8807 %A Cortekar, J., Themessl, M., Lamich, K. %D 2020 %J Climate Services %P 100125 %R doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100125 %T Systematic analysis of EU-based climate service providers %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100125 %X Tools, products, data and services related to climate change may significantly contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In order to develop a market for climate services, information on the current landscape of climate service providers and their portfolios is needed. In this paper we present a systematic analysis of the supply side of the climate service market, which is based on survey results and an extensive desk research resulting in a collection of information about 371 public and private climate service providers in the EU Member States. Our analyses show that even though the number of identified private sector providers considerably increased compared to previous mappings, the market is still dominated by public climate service providers. Based on the definition of climate services applied here, our data show an unequal distribution of climate service providers in the EU Member States with a significant gap between Eastern Member States and the rest of the European Union. In general, the supply side is dominated by downstream activities such as advisory services or publications compared to upstream services such data collection. For both public and private providers, the primarily targeted sectors are water, energy, agriculture and urban/spatial planning. While decision makers and politicians are important target groups for both provider categories, the general public and researchers are mainly addressed by public providers whereas corporations/industries are primarily served by private providers. %0 journal article %@ 1942-2466 %A Sein, D., Gröger, M., Cabos, W., Alvarez-Garcia, F.J., Hagemann, S., Pinto, J., Izquierdo, A., de la Vara, A., Koldunov, N.V., Dvornikov, A., Limareva, N., Alekseeva, E., Martinez-Lopez, B., Jacob, D. %D 2020 %J Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems %N 8 %P e2019MS001646 %R doi:10.1029/2019MS001646 %T Regionally Coupled Atmosphere‐Ocean‐Marine Biogeochemistry Model ROM: 2. Studying the Climate Change Signal in the North Atlantic and Europe %U https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001646 8 %X Climate simulations for the North Atlantic and Europe for recent and future conditions simulated with the regionally coupled ROM model are analyzed and compared to the results from the MPI‐ESM. The ROM simulations also include a biogeochemistry and ocean tides. For recent climate conditions, ROM generally improves the simulations compared to the driving model MPI‐ESM. Reduced oceanic biases in the Northern Atlantic are found, as well as a better simulation of the atmospheric circulation, notably storm tracks and blocking. Regarding future climate projections for the 21st century following the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, MPI‐ESM and ROM largely agree qualitatively on the climate change signal over Europe. However, many important differences are identified. For example, ROM shows an SST cooling in the Subpolar Gyre, which is not present in MPI‐ESM. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, ROM Arctic sea ice cover is thinner and reaches the seasonally ice‐free state by 2055, well before MPI‐ESM. This shows the decisive importance of higher ocean resolution and regional coupling for determining the regional responses to global warming trends. Regarding biogeochemistry, both ROM and MPI‐ESM simulate a widespread decline in winter nutrient concentration in the North Atlantic of up to ~35%. On the other hand, the phytoplankton spring bloom in the Arctic and in the North‐Western Atlantic starts earlier, and the yearly primary production is enhanced in the Arctic in the late 21st century. These results clearly demonstrate the added value of ROM to determine more detailed and more reliable climate projections at the regional scale. %0 journal article %@ 0035-9009 %A Katzfey, J., Schlünzen, K., Hoffmann, P., Thatcher, M. %D 2020 %J Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society %N 733 %P 3808-3829 %R doi:10.1002/qj.3874 %T How an urban parameterization affects a high‐resolution global climate simulation %U https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3874 733 %X The impact of urban areas on the global and regional climate has been assessed using the global Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) including an urban canyon parameterization at a global resolution of 50 km. Simulations were produced with and without urban areas to assess urban impacts for the historical period 1980–2000. Two different land cover and urban datasets (one based on IGBP‐DIS, the other on MODIS) were tested. In addition, simulations were performed for the end of the 21st century with the RCP8.5 scenario. Evaluation of the historical climate simulations indicates realistic local urban effects, such as higher daily minimum air temperatures (tasmin), higher sensible heat flux and lower latent heat flux at urban grid cells. In regions with large fractions of urban areas, some regional changes are also noted. In addition, there are significant regional effects far away from the main urban areas, which are similar in magnitude to the effects of the different non‐urban land cover input datasets. Under the projected warming at the end of the 21st century (with no land cover change), there is a decrease in anthropogenic heating, primarily during wintertime. There is a slightly smaller increase in daily maximum temperature and a slightly larger increase in tasmin in urban areas compared to rural areas. This leads to a smaller increase in the diurnal temperature range within urban areas. The tasmin changes also imply an increase in the urban heat island effect for larger cities. The results of this sensitivity study show that there is a detectable impact of urban areas on high‐resolution global climate simulations. Consequently, there is a need to include urban areas in global simulations, as well as in studies of land‐use change. %0 doctoral thesis %@ %A Gómez Martín, E. %D 2020 %J %T Thinking in Systems, Thinking in Nature: Evaluating the long-term performance of Nature Based Solutions %U %X Consequently, the central focus of this research is to explore ways to operationalise the NBS concept for adaptation and sustainable development planning. For that, this dissertation seeks to increase the evidence-based on the long-term effectiveness of NBS for addressing different societal challenges. This research has critically evaluated the NBS concept as well as the main trade-offs in their long-term performance. In this sense, different approaches have been proposed to improve the decision-making process and the adaptation capacity of NBS. The study is divided into four consecutive chapters that explore different aspects relevant to the design and implementation of NBS. Stakeholders engagement and participatory modelling approaches have been the backbone of this research. For this reason, the conceptual and methodological assessment of NBS carried out in this study, has been tested and validated by end-users and stakeholders in two case studies, Copenhagen city and Medina Del Campo Groundwater Body (Spain). %0 book part %@ %A Groth, M., Seipold, P. %D 2020 %J Handbook of Climate Services %P 51-66 %R doi:10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3_4 %T Business Strategies and Climate Change—Prototype Development and Testing of a User Specific Climate Service Product for Companies %U https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3_4 %X Companies are increasingly concerned with current and future climate change risks and opportunities that have the potential to generate a substantial change in their business operations, revenue and/or expenditure. Against this background, the paper presents and discusses the methodology and results from a joint activity carried out by the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), the management consultancy CSR Management Services, as well as the German 2° Foundation and eight of its supporting companies in Germany. Based on the practical requirement to develop a novel approach to increase awareness for companies to adapt to climate change, a questionnaire has been co-developed as a novel “Company Analysis Tool”, which considers the influence of climate change on key business indicators and planning strategies. Additionally, a first implementation and testing of the “Company Analysis Tool” took place, whereby 35 interviews have been carried out with the top-level management involved. Therefore the main objective was to raise awareness for climate change and the need for adaptation measures. The paper presents and discusses the methodology, practical implementation, results and lessons learned as part of this prototype development and testing of a climate service product for companies. One main outcome of the project was to learn about the crucial importance of closely integrating companies in the development of a climate service product at an early stage and on an equal footing. Besides awareness raising and a company-specific analysis, the detailed reflection of climate change opportunities and risks has also been of great interest and importance for the participating companies. Therefore our approach with a clear focus on companies’ specific challenges in different sectors proved to be a useful climate service product, with results of high relevance for adaptation practice and business. %0 other %@ %A Krönert, T., Pfeifer, S., Sonntag, S., Weber, T. %D 2020 %J Earth System Knowledge Platform %R doi:10.48440/eskp.055 %T Kombinierte Gefahrenlagen durch den Klimawandel %U https://doi.org/10.48440/eskp.055 %X Langfristige Veränderungen des Klimas können eine Gesellschaft besonders verletzlich gegenüber kurzfristigen Extremereignissen machen. Darum gilt es, Multi-Risiko-Bedrohungen vorausschauend zu identifizieren. %0 report %@ %A Bouwer, L. %D 2020 %J %T Climate risk information: An essential service for planning %U %X By now, several threats of humanmade climate change are becoming clear. This is supported by a wealth of available information from the climate services community, on changes in temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather that are projected for the future. What this means for the performance of existing and planned infrastructure, or the increasing chance of shut down of operations, cannot be easily understood from such climate outlooks alone. Only by coupling climate information with non-climatic information, one can begin to understand the vulnerabilities. The assessment of such vulnerabilities and risks in turn is a starting point for considering potential response measures. %0 journal article %@ 2212-4209 %A Shah, M.A.R., Renaud, F.G., Anderson, C.C., Wild, A., Domeneghetti, A., Polderman, A., Votsis, A., Pulvirenti, B., Basu, B., Thomson, C., Panga, D., Pouta, E., Toth, E., Pilla, F., Sahani, J., Ommer, J., El Zohbi, J., Munro, K., Stefanopoulou, M., Loupis, M., Pangas, N., Kumar, P., Debele, S., Preuschmann, S., Zixuan, W. %D 2020 %J International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction %P 101728 %R doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101728 %T A review of hydro-meteorological hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment frameworks and indicators in the context of nature-based solutions %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101728 %X Nature-based solutions (NBS) are increasingly being implemented as suitable approaches for reducing vulnerability and risk of social-ecological systems (SES) to hydro-meteorological hazards. Understanding vulnerability and risk of SES is crucial in order to design and implement NBS projects appropriately. A systematic literature review was carried out to examine the suitability of, or gaps in, existing frameworks for vulnerability and risk assessment of SES to hydro-meteorological hazards. The review confirms that very few frameworks have been developed in the context of NBS. Most of the frameworks have emphasised social systems over ecological systems. Furthermore, they have not explicitly considered the temporal dimension of risk reduction measures. The study proposes an indicator-based vulnerability and risk assessment framework in the context of NBS (VR-NBS) that addresses both the above limitations and considers established NBS principles. The framework aims to allow for a better consideration of the multiple benefits afforded by NBS and which impact all the dimensions of risk. A list of 135 indicators is identified through literature review and surveys in NBS project sites. This list is composed of indicators representing the social sub-system (61% of total indicators) and the ecological sub-system (39% of total indicators). The list will act as a reference indicator library in the context of NBS projects and will be regularly updated as lessons are learnt. While the proposed VR-NBS framework is developed considering hydro-meteorological hazards and NBS, it can be adapted for other natural hazards and different types of risk reduction measures. %0 conference paper %@ 2267-1242 %A Winkler, M., Steuri, B., Stadler, S., Antretter, F. %D 2020 %J E3S Web of Conferences %P 11010 %R doi:10.1051/e3sconf/202017211010 %T Evaluating the Practicability of the new Urban Climate Model PALM-4U using a Living-Lab Approach %U https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202017211010 %X Numerical urban climate models have the potential to be commonly used tools in urban development processes in practice. With integrated modules for building and envelope simulation these complex models allow the assessment of measures in the building sector on the urban climate, e.g. for mitigation of urban heat island effects or preparing for the effects of climate change. However, the currently existing models do not fulfil the requirements that arise in the field of urban planning, as they lack for example functionality, user-friendliness, are hard to integrate in the municipalities’ technical equipment or are not freely available. The German research and development project Urban Climate under Change (2016-2019) developed and validated a new innovative urban climate model called PALM-4U. Aim of the research was to create a model that meets the requirements of users in science as well as practitioners in engineering offices and urban administrations. Therefore, technical features and operational functionalities which the model has to meet to support users in their daily work have been assessed in a first project phase. In total more than 200 requirements were collected which are summed up in the so called “User and Requirements Catalogue”. They served as the basis for testing and evaluating the model’s real-world applicability. To ensure that these complex requirements are met, the whole project follows a transdisciplinary approach integrating science (model development and data assimilation) and practice (user requirements, testing and evaluation) applying a living lab approach: Stakeholders from participating cities and companies took part in on-site workshops, introducing the model with practical use-cases. Afterwards, participants were given tasks covering different features of the model’s applications, which they tested in personal use. The model fulfils the majority of the tested requirements and the users appreciated the model’s concept and functionality. But further development is necessary to provide the practitioners a tool that is applicable in their daily work: Preparation of input data, a user-friendly graphical user-interface, enhanced interfaces to other software and planning tools, use cases that were prepared from experts as well as guidelines and tools for result assessment and interpretation were main suggestions for improvement. %0 book %@ 1610-2002 %D 2020 %J %R doi:10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3 %T Handbook of Climate Services %U https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3 %X Apart from presenting studies and the results of research projects, the book also offers an overview of the wide range of means available for providing and using climate services. In addition, it features case studies that provide illustrative and inspiring examples of how climate services can be optimally deployed. %0 journal article %@ 0930-7575 %A Tangang, F., Chung, J.X., Juneng, L., Supari, Salimun, E., Ngai, S.T., Jamaluddin, A.F., Mohd, M.S.F., Cruz, F., Narisma, G., Santisirisomboon, J., Ngo-Duc, T., Van Tan, P., Singhruck, P., Gunawan, D., Aldrian, E., Sopaheluwakan, A., Grigory, N., Remedio, A.R.C., Sein, D.V., Hein-Griggs, D., McGregor, J.L., Yang, H., Sasaki, H., Kumar, P. %D 2020 %J Climate Dynamics %P 1247-1267 %R doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 %T Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations %U https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05322-2 %X This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the twenty-first century based on the multi-model simulations of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total of 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to a resolution of 25 km × 25 km over the SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as the historical period for evaluating the changes in seasonal precipitation of December–January–February (DJF) and June–July–August (JJA) over future periods of the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late twenty-first century (2071–2099). The ensemble mean shows a good reproduction of the SEA climatological mean spatial precipitation pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from simulations using the RegCM4 model. Increases in mean rainfall (10–20%) are projected throughout the twenty-first century over Indochina and eastern Philippines during DJF while a drying tendency prevails over the Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections of both RCPs indicate reductions in mean rainfall (10–30%) over the Maritime Continent, particularly over the Indonesian region by mid and late twenty-first century. However, examination of individual member responses shows prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty in the projections. %0 journal article %@ 0177-798X %A Zhu, S., Ge, F., Sielmann, F., Pan, M., Fraedrich, K., Remedio, A.R.C., Sein, D.V., Jacob, D., Wang, H., Zhi, X. %D 2020 %J Theoretical and Applied Climatology %P 613-622 %R doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03345-7 %T Seasonal temperature response over the Indochina Peninsula to a worst-case high-emission forcing: a study with the regionally coupled model ROM %U https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03345-7 %X Changes of surface air temperature (SAT) over the Indochina Peninsula (ICP) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario are projected for wet and dry seasons in the short-term (2020–2049) and long-term (2070–2099) future of the twenty-first century. A first analysis on projections of the SAT by the state-of-the-art regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean model ROM, including exchanges of momentum, heat, and water fluxes between the atmosphere (Regional Model) and ocean (Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) models, shows the following results: (i) In both seasons, the highest SAT occurs over the southern coastal area while the lowest over the northern mountains. The highest warming magnitudes are located in the northwestern part of the ICP. The regionally averaged SAT over the ICP increases by 2.61 °C in the wet season from short- to long-term future, which is slightly faster than that of 2.50 °C in the dry season. (ii) During the short-term future, largest SAT trends occur over the southeast and northwest ICP in wet and dry seasons, respectively. On regional average, the wet season is characterized by a significant warming rate of 0.22 °C decade−1, while it is non-significant with 0.11 °C decade−1 for the dry season. For the long-term future, the rapid warming is strengthened significantly over whole ICP, with trends of 0.51 °C decade−1 and 0.42 °C decade−1 in wet and dry seasons, respectively. (iii) In the long-term future, more conspicuous warming is noted, especially in the wet season, due to the increased downward longwave radiation. Higher CO2 concentrations enhancing the greenhouse effect can be attributed to the water vapor–greenhouse feedback, which, affecting atmospheric humidity and counter radiation, leads to the rising SAT. %0 journal article %@ 0026-1165 %A Stevens, B., Acquistapace, C., Hansen, A., Heinze, R., Klinger, C., Klocke, D., Rybka, H., Schubotz, W., Windmiller, J., Adamidis, P., Arka, I., Barlakas, V., Biercamp, J., Brueck, M., Brune, S., Buehler, S.A., Burkhardt, U., Cioni, G., Costa-Surós, M., Crewell, S., Crüger, T., Deneke, H., Friederichs, P., Henken, C.C., Hohenegger, C., Jacob, M., Jakub, F., Kalthoff, N., Köhler, M., van Laar, T.W., Li, P., Löhnert, U., Macke, A., Madenach, N., Mayer, B., Nam, C., Naumann, A.K., Peters, K., Poll, S., Quaas, J., Röber, N., Rochetin, N., Scheck, L., Schemann, V., Schnitt, S., Seifert, A., Senf, F., Shapkalijevski, M., Simmer, C., Singh, S., Sourdeval, O., Spickermann, D., Strandgren, J., Tessiot, O., Vercauteren, N., Vial, J., Voigt, A., Zängl, G. %D 2020 %J Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan %N 2 %P 395-435 %R doi:10.2151/jmsj.2020-021 %T The Added Value of Large-eddy and Storm-resolving Models for Simulating Clouds and Precipitation %U https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2020-021 2 %X More than one hundred days were simulated over very large domains with fine (0.156 km to 2.5 km) grid spacing for realistic conditions to test the hypothesis that storm (kilometer) and large-eddy (hectometer) resolving simulations would provide an improved representation of clouds and precipitation in atmospheric simulations. At scales that resolve convective storms (storm-resolving for short), the vertical velocity variance becomes resolved and a better physical basis is achieved for representing clouds and precipitation. Similarly to past studies we found an improved representation of precipitation at kilometer scales, as compared to models with parameterized convection. The main precipitation features (location, diurnal cycle and spatial propagation) are well captured already at kilometer scales, and refining resolution to hectometer scales does not substantially change the simulations in these respects. It does, however, lead to a reduction in the precipitation on the time-scales considered – most notably over the ocean in the tropics. Changes in the distribution of precipitation, with less frequent extremes are also found in simulations incorporating hectometer scales. Hectometer scales appear to be more important for the representation of clouds, and make it possible to capture many important aspects of the cloud field, from the vertical distribution of cloud cover, to the distribution of cloud sizes, and to the diel (daily) cycle. Qualitative improvements, particularly in the ability to differentiate cumulus from stratiform clouds, are seen when one reduces the grid spacing from kilometer to hectometer scales. At the hectometer scale new challenges arise, but the similarity of observed and simulated scales, and the more direct connection between the circulation and the unconstrained degrees of freedom make these challenges less daunting. This quality, combined with already improved simulation as compared to more parameterized models, underpins our conviction that the use and further development of storm-resolving models offers exciting opportunities for advancing understanding of climate and climate change. %0 journal article %@ 2375-2548 %A Mülmenstädt, J., Nam, C., Salzmann, M., Kretzschmar, J., L’Ecuyer, T., Lohmann, U., Ma, P., Myhre, G., Neubauer, D., Stier, P., Suzuki, K., Wang, M., Quaas, J. %D 2020 %J Science Advances %N 22 %P eaaz6433 %R doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaz6433 %T Reducing the aerosol forcing uncertainty using observational constraints on warm rain processes %U https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz6433 22 %X Global climate models (GCMs) disagree with other lines of evidence on the rapid adjustments of cloud cover and liquid water path to anthropogenic aerosols. Attempts to use observations to constrain the parameterizations of cloud processes in GCMs have failed to reduce the disagreement. We propose using observations sensitive to the relevant cloud processes rather than only to the atmospheric state and focusing on process realism in the absence of aerosol perturbations in addition to the process susceptibility to aerosols. We show that process-sensitive observations of precipitation can reduce the uncertainty on GCM estimates of rapid cloud adjustments to aerosols. The feasibility of an observational constraint depends on understanding the precipitation intensity spectrum in both observations and models and also on improving methods to compare the two. %0 journal article %@ 0930-7575 %A Cabos, W., de la Vara, A., Álvarez-García, F.J., Sánchez, E., Sieck, K., Pérez-Sanz, J., Limareva, N., Sein, D. %D 2020 %J Climate Dynamics %P 4441-4467 %R doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05238-x %T Impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling on regional climate: the Iberian Peninsula case %U https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05238-x %X Regional models used for downscaling the European climate usually include a relatively small area of the Atlantic Ocean and are uncoupled, with the SST used as lower boundary conditions much coarser than the mesh of the regional atmospheric model. Concerns thus arise about the proper representation of the oceanic influence and the role of air-sea coupling in such experiments. A complex orography and the exposure to different air and ocean masses make the Iberian Peninsula (IP) an ideal test case for exploring the impact of including explicitly the North Atlantic in the regional domain and the added value that coupling brings to regional climate modeling. To this end, the regionally-coupled model ROM and its atmospheric component, the regional atmospheric model REMO are used in a set of coupled and uncoupled experiments forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and by the global climate model MPI-ESM. The atmospheric domain is the same in all simulations and includes the North Atlantic and the ocean component is global and eddy permitting. Results show that the impact of air-sea coupling on the IP winter biases can be traced back to the features of the simulated North Atlantic Ocean circulation. In summer, it is the air-sea interactions in the Mediterranean that exert the largest influence on the regional biases. Despite improvements introduced by the eddy-permitting ocean, it is suggested that a higher resolution could be needed for a correct simulation of the features of the large-scale atmospheric circulation that impact the climate of the IP. %0 journal article %@ 1991-959X %A Demory, M.-E., Berthou, S., Fernández, J., Sørland, S.L., Brogli, R., Roberts, M.J., Beyerle, U., Seddon, J., Haarsma, R., Schär, C., Buonomo, E., Christensen, O.B., Ciarlo, J.M., Fealy, R., Nikulin, G., Peano, D., Putrasahan, D., Roberts, C.D., Senan, R., Steger, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R. %D 2020 %J Geoscientific Model Development %N 11 %P 5485-5506 %R doi:10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020 %T European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) %U https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020 11 %X The analyses also confirm previous findings that, although the spatial representation of precipitation is improved, the effect of increasing resolution from 50 to 12 km horizontal grid spacing in EURO-CORDEX daily precipitation distributions is, in comparison, small in most regions and seasons outside mountainous regions and coastal regions. Our results show that both high-resolution GCMs and CORDEX RCMs provide adequate information to end users at a 50 km scale. %0 journal article %@ 2405-8807 %A Cortekar, J., Willen, L., Büter, B., Winkler, M., Hölsgens, R., Burmeister, C., Dankwart-Kammoun, S., Kriuger, A., Steuri, B. %D 2020 %J Climate Services %P 100193 %R doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100193 %T Basics for the operationalization of the new urban climate model PALM-4U %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100193 %X Climate change is among the most important societal challenges of our time. The IPCC special report “Global Warming of 1.5 °C” (IPCC 2018) has shown that even a warming of 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels will have a significant impact on society. Climate change-related risks and impacts are increasing steadily. Many of these risks and impacts will hit urban areas in particular, regardless of their size, location and economic and social circumstances. Key issues include rising temperatures (especially the urban heat island effect) and related issues such as heat stress and increased air pollution, longer dry periods in combination with rising water stress, extreme weather events such as heavy rains, river flooding, and, in coastal areas, sea-level rise. The combined effects of these events are already causing health problems and even death, as well as serious economic damage (Smith et al., 2014). It is expected that these challenges will become even more severe in the coming decades and will require additional efforts. %0 journal article %@ 2405-8807 %A Tart, S., Groth, M., Seipold, P. %D 2020 %J Climate Services %P 100109 %R doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100109 %T Market demand for climate services: An assessment of users’ needs %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100109 %X Analysis shows that users have a greater need for either past climate data or data analysis that falls within the next year, meaning they are less interested in long-term data with higher uncertainties. Moreover, while climate services hold great potential and offer huge societal benefits, their presence is not always easy to find outside of research purposes. Policies and regulations can fill this gap and be a strong purchase driver for climate services, as can the development of climate services that help companies achieve their corporate social responsibility and sustainability goals. %0 journal article %@ 1463-5003 %A Kovalevsky, D., Bashmachnikov, I. %D 2020 %J Ocean Modelling %P 101680 %R doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101680 %T An analytical model of open-ocean deep convection with multiple steady states %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2020.101680 %X Whitehead’s ‘tank model’ (Whitehead, 2000) describes a localized deep convective site exchanging water with a two-layer neighbouring ocean basin at three vertical levels. We generalize the original model for the case of arbitrary temperatures and salinities of water layers under an assumption of a constant surface heat flux to the atmosphere in the convective area. The generalized model has unique stable steady state for any value of the heat flux. We then explore analytically the regimes with multiple steady states for a temperature-dependent heat flux to the atmosphere. In this latter case, the multiple steady states are possible and the condition for their existence is derived analytically. Depending on the values of the non-dimensional model parameters, the solution allows for a different number of steady states: from zero to three. The Lyapunov stability analysis showed that, in the case of three steady states, only two of them are stable. The model results are tested against the observations in the Greenland Sea. The results show that the model, in spite of its simplicity, adequately describes many basic features of water exchange between the region of a frequent development of deep convection in the Greenland Sea and the surrounding ocean. The model predicts a negligibly small probability for existence of multiple steady states, which might result from a feedback between the horizontal advection and the deep convection in the Greenland Sea. %0 conference paper %@ %A Loli, A., Bertolin, C., Kotova, L. %D 2020 %J IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering %P 012048 %R doi:10.1088/1757-899X/949/1/012048 %T Service life prediction of building components in the times of climate change %U https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/949/1/012048 %X The paper presents an overview of the application of the well-known factor method in the estimation of the serviceability of the building components, with a special focus on historic buildings impacted by climate change. The technical compatibility, economic viability, use of the building and the indoor/outdoor environments are considered during the assessment of the service life which is strictly linked with the level of decay. It gives a short explanation of the factors that constitute the method by including the effects of climate change and an example of application to a specific case study in Norway. %0 journal article %@ 2624-9553 %A Thoni, T., Beck, S., Borchers, M., Förster, J., Görl, K., Hahn, A., Mengis, N., Stevenson, A., Thrän, D. %D 2020 %J Frontiers in Climate %P 590305 %R doi:10.3389/fclim.2020.590305 %T Deployment of Negative Emissions Technologies at the National Level: A Need for Holistic Feasibility Assessments %U https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2020.590305 %X The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to strengthen the global response to climate change, and to maintain an average global temperature well below 2°C, with aspirations toward 1.5°C, by means of balancing sources and sinks of greenhouse gas emissions. Following this, the importance of carbon dioxide removal in global emission pathways has been further emphasized, and Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) that capture carbon from the atmosphere and remove it from the system have been put in the spotlight. NETs range from innovative, engineered technologies, to well-known approaches like afforestation/reforestation. These technologies essentially compensate for a shrinking carbon budget coupled with hard-to-abate future emissions, and a historical lack of action. However, none has been deployed at scales close to what is envisioned in emission pathways in line with the Paris Agreement goals. To understand the potential contribution of NETs to meet global emission goals, we need to better understand opportunities and constraints for deploying NETs on a national level. We examine 17 Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), and discuss them in the context of available NETs feasibility assessments. Our mapping shows that most countries include NETs in their long-term strategies, and that enhancement of natural sinks is the most dominating type of NET in these strategies. In line with many feasibility assessments, LT-LEDS focus on technical and biophysical considerations, and neglect socio-cultural dimensions. We suggest that feasibility assessments at the national level need to be more holistic; context-specific and comprehensive in terms of aspects assessed. %0 journal article %@ 2328-4277 %A Fröb, F., Sonntag, S., Pongratz, J., Schmidt, H., Ilyina, T. %D 2020 %J Earth’s Future %N 10 %P e2020EF001634 %R doi:10.1029/2020EF001634 %T Detectability of Artificial Ocean Alkalinization and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection in MPI‐ESM %U https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001634 10 %X To monitor the success of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) or solar radiation management (SRM) that offset anthropogenic climate change, the forced response to any external forcing is required to be detectable against internal variability. Thus far, only the detectability of SRM has been examined using both a stationary and nonstationary detection and attribution method. Here, the spatiotemporal detectability of the forced response to artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) and stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) as exemplary methods for CDR and SRM, respectively, is compared in Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM) experiments using regularized optimal fingerprinting and single‐model estimates of internal variability, while working under a stationary or nonstationary null hypothesis. Although both experiments are forced by emissions according to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and target the climate of the RCP4.5 scenario using AOA or SAI, detection timescales reflect the fundamentally different forcing agents. Moreover, detectability timescales are sensitive to the choice of null hypothesis. Globally, changes in the CO2 system in seawater are detected earlier than the response in temperature to AOA but later in the case of SAI. Locally, the detection time scales depend on the physical, chemical, and radiative impacts of CDR and SRM forcing on the climate system, as well as patterns of internal variability, which is highlighted for oceanic heat and carbon storage. %0 journal article %@ 1748-9326 %A Máñez Costa, M., Marchal, R., Moncoulon, D., Gómez Martín, E. %D 2020 %J Environmental Research Letters %N 11 %P 111003 %R doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abc046 %T A sustainable flywheel: opportunities from insurance' business to support nature-based solutions for climate adaptation %U https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc046 11 %X Because economic and human losses might increase in a changing climate, the question of insurability of risks and affordability of insurance become key. High risks might become uninsurable and the costs of insurance contracts might upsurge. Simultaneously, the protection gap, the discrepancy between economic losses and the claims covered by insurance, has increased. The economic growth of developing and developed countries has boosted the emergence of insurance policies as well as the rise of insured values (Staib and Puttaiah 2018). The resilience of our societies to both frequent and extreme events require to close the protection gap through strong risk transfer mechanisms. The threats of climate change can lead to opportunities by the (re)insurance sector through their involvement into nature-based loss prevention for climate change adaptation (CCA). The opportunities are framed within the sustainable flywheel business model for the (re)insurance future (figure 1). The flywheel is a virtuous circle that leverages on (re)insurers' risk modelling expertise to increase knowledge on the consequences of climate change on hazards and on nature-based solutions (NBS). This will maintain affordability of insurance by limiting increasing damage and the industry further participates in investments and partnerships for loss prevention. %0 report %@ 2509-386X %A Groth, M., Bender, S., Wuebbelmann, T. %D 2020 %J %T Starkregen und Sturzfluten – Anwendung des GERICS-Stadtbaukasten in Bleckede – Report 34 : GERICS - CSC Report %U %X %0 conference paper %@ %A Kotova, L. %D 2020 %J Cultural Heritage in Crisis : Cultural Heritage Research at European Level - Challenges in Times of Climate Change and Digitalization %P 14-18 %T How can climate model information be used to better preserve cultural heritage in times of anthropogenic climate change %U %X %0 journal article %@ 2405-8807 %A Williams, D., Máñez Costa, M., Kovalevsky, D., van den Hurk, B., Klein, B., Meissner, D., Pulido-Velazquez, M., Andreu, J., Suarez-Alminana, S. %D 2020 %J Climate Services %P 100180 %R doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100180 %T A method of assessing user capacities for effective climate services %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100180 %X Translating and incorporating climate information into decision-making and policy planning processes is challenging. In tailoring climate data to sector-specific user needs, climate services are seen as key mechanisms for facilitating this translation and incorporation, supporting climate change adaptation and sustainable development. The European water sector is especially in need of tailored climate data for informing climate-smart action and reducing human and economic impacts of climate change. This was the objective of the EU Horizon 2020 Project IMPREX (IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes). The paper shows how pre-identified shortcomings were addressed in the design of climate services in IMPREX, and how this process elucidated new research priorities for improving the effectiveness of climate services. The paper finds the use of participatory methods helped identify stakeholder needs, and advocates for the greater consideration of user and institutional capacity for integrating climate services into decision-making and policy planning processes. %0 journal article %@ 2328-4277 %A Weber, T., Bowyer, P., Rechid, D., Pfeifer, S., Raffaele, F., Remedio, A., Teichmann, C., Jacob, D. %D 2020 %J Earth’s Future %N 9 %P e2019EF001473 %R doi:10.1029/2019EF001473 %T Analysis of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposed Population in Africa Under Two Different Emission Scenarios %U https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001473 9 %X It is well established that Africa is particularly exposed to climate extremes including heat waves, droughts, and intense rainfall events. How exposed Africa is to the co‐occurrence of these events is however virtually unknown. This study provides the first analysis of projected changes in the co‐occurrence of five such compound climate extremes in Africa, under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. These changes are combined with population projections for a low (SSP1) and high (SSP3) population growth scenario, in order to provide estimates of the number of people that may be exposed to such events at the end of the 21st century. We make use of an ensemble of regional climate projections from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) project embedded in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework. This ensemble comprises five different Earth System Model/Regional Climate Model (ESM/RCM) combinations with three different ESMs and two RCMs. We show that all five compound climate extremes will increase in frequency, with changes being greater under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. Moreover, populations exposed to these changes are greater under RCP8.5/SSP3, than RCP2.6/SSP1, increasing by 47‐ and 12‐fold, respectively, compared to the present‐day. Regions of Africa that are particularly exposed are West Africa, Central‐East Africa, and Northeast and Southeast Africa. Increased exposure is mainly driven by the interaction between climate and population growth, and the effect of population alone. This has important policy implications in relation to climate mitigation and adaptation. %0 journal article %@ 1948-8335 %A Williams, D. %D 2020 %J Weather, Climate & Society %N 4 %P 667-678 %R doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0024.1 %T Enhancing Autonomy for Climate Change Adaptation Using Participatory Modeling %U https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0024.1 4 %X Participatory modeling is commonly applied in climate change adaptation research to integrate stakeholder knowledge, beliefs, values, and norms into modeling processes. However, participation is not neutral, and current climate change adaptation research is tailored toward those with sufficient resources to adapt, as opposed to those most in need of adaptation. These are commonly marginalized stakeholder groups who remain on the social, economic, and political periphery, driving their vulnerability to climate change impacts. This paper presents the concept of autonomy in the context of multilevel governance for climate change adaptation before examining past participatory modeling approaches, illustrating the lack of application as an emancipatory tool for increasing the autonomy of marginalized stakeholder groups. Therefore, a list of 10 necessary conditions is presented for conducting participatory modeling for increasing the autonomy of marginalized stakeholder groups, strengthening multilevel governance for climate change adaptation. These theoretical foundations are intended to guide public policy and increase the societal impact of participatory modeling. %0 journal article %@ 0894-8755 %A Breil, M., Rechid, D., Davin, E., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Katragkou, E., Cardoso, R., Hoffmann, P., Jach, L., Soares, P., Sofiadis, G., Strada, S., Strandberg, G., Tölle, M., Warrach-Sagi, K. %D 2020 %J Journal of Climate %N 21 %P 9159-9179 %R doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0624.1 %T The Opposing Effects of Reforestation and Afforestation on the Diurnal Temperature Cycle at the Surface and in the Lowest Atmospheric Model Level in the European Summer %U https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0624.1 21 %X First, an in-depth analysis of one ensemble member (CCLM-VEG3D) is carried out, to reveal the complex process chain caused by such land use changes (LUCs). Based on these findings, the whole ensemble is analyzed and principle biophysical effects of re/af-forestation are derived. Results show that the diurnal temperature range is reduced at the surface (top of the vegetation) with re/af-forestation. Most RCMs simulate colder surface temperatures (Tsurf) during the day and warmer Tsurf during the night. Thus, for the first time, the principle temperature interrelations found in observation-based studies in the mid-latitudes could be reproduced within a model intercomparison study. On the contrary, the diurnal temperature range in the lowest atmospheric model level (Tair) is increased with re/af-forestation. This opposing temperature response is mainly caused by the higher surface roughness of forest, enhancing the turbulent heat exchange. Furthermore, these opposing temperature responses demonstrate that the use of the diagnostic 2 m temperature (weighted interpolation between Tsurf and Tair) has a limited potential to assess the effects of re/af-forestation. Thus, studies about the biophysical impacts of LUCs should investigate the whole near-surface temperature profile. %0 journal article %@ 2413-8851 %A Hoffmann, P., Nomaguchi, Y., Hara, K., Sawai, K., Gasser, I., Albrecht, M., Bechtel, B., Fischereit, J., Fujita, K., Gaffron, P., Krefis, A., Quante, M., Schefran, J., Schlünzen, K., von Szombathely, M. %D 2020 %J Urban Science %N 2 %P 28 %R doi:10.3390/urbansci4020028 %T Multi-Domain Design Structure Matrix Approach Applied to Urban System Modeling %U https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci4020028 2 %X Modeling the urban system for urban health and well-being with the aim of finding ways to optimize the well-being of urban dwellers is a complex task. Different modeling approaches that consider specific parts of the urban system, e.g., environmental stressors, urban society, and urban morphology, need to be integrated. The conceptual model of health-related urban well-being (UrbWellth) has been constructed to provide a structure for an integrated modeling framework. However, interfaces between the different modeling approaches were not sufficiently identified until now. The challenge to specify and operationalize these interfaces is met by using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) concept, which is widely used in design engineering. It is used here to identify necessary interfaces within the urban system by determining the relevant interface variables and processes. The conceptual model for UrbWellth is used to construct a DSM. The results of a clustering of this UrbWellth-based DSM reveal that the structure of the conceptual model is indeed suitable to serve as a basis for an integrated model. Further, a Multi-Domain DSM (MDDSM), which is an extension of the DSM based on expert knowledge from individual modelers, identified the interface variables for the integrated model components as well as the processes for which different modeling approaches need to be coordinated. Moreover, the approach based on MDDSM identified processes that are not yet covered by the available modeling approaches. %0 journal article %@ 0921-8009 %A Gómez Martín, E., Máñez Costa, M., Schwerdtner Manez, K. %D 2020 %J Ecological Economics %P 106460 %R doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106460 %T An operationalized classification of Nature Based Solutions for water-related hazards: From theory to practice %U https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106460 %X Nature Based Solutions (NBS) are currently gaining importance in the EU policy agenda as a promising approach to mitigate and adapt to environmental and climate change. The main advantage of NBS over other adaptation strategies is their capability to deliver multiple benefits. They support the resilience of natural processes and help in reducing adaptation costs. In this paper, we address the current gaps in the literature by providing a comprehensive, easy-to-use classification scheme focussing on hydrological extreme events. The classification scheme is presented as a matrix and contains a portfolio of known NBS as well as the important criteria for their selection. Specifically, we have included disservices/ barriers, and the potential impacts of climate change on NBS. The matrix provides decision-makers with a tool that will guide them through the first phase of the complex process when choosing the most appropriative NBS for a specific challenge. In that way, we aim to support the spread of NBS in the scientific literature as well as their practical application. %0 journal article %@ 0165-0009 %A Bisaro, A., Bel, M.de, Hinkel, J., Kok, S., Bouwer, L.M. %D 2020 %J Climatic Change %P 671-689 %R doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02507-5 %T Leveraging public adaptation finance through urban land reclamation: cases from Germany, the Netherlands and the Maldives %U https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02507-5 %X Flood risk in urban areas around the world is increasing due to socio-economic development and climate change. Urban climate adaptation measures are beneficial over the longer term, particularly in coastal areas, yet the upfront costs of such measures are significant. Moreover, public actors responsible for adaptation to flood risk face constrained budgets. A promising strategy for overcoming these constraints and enabling greater adaptation investment is land reclamation that includes adaptation, i.e. flood risk reduction. Land reclamation in high-value urban areas can generate substantial revenues through the sale or lease of new land, or taxes on increased economic activities, thus offsetting public adaptation investments. This paper explores the potential of land reclamation for leveraging public adaptation investments and associated distributional issues, by analysing 3 urban land reclamation and adaptation projects in Germany, the Netherlands and the Maldives. We find that all projects have leveraging potential, and leveraging in projects primarily aimed at land creation is particularly high. Further, due to low adaptation costs needed to protect revenue streams in such projects, these investments appear to be ‘low-regret’. Regarding distributional aspects, high project costs and limited public budgets for adaptation constrain public actors’ ability to ensure equitable outcomes through planning instruments, for example, social housing. Further, in implementation, competition for project benefits can lead to further inequalities. We conclude that urban land reclamation presents a significant opportunity to leverage public adaptation investments under certain conditions. We further outline future research needs including to extend land-based financing theory from related urban infrastructure sectors to inform the design of equitable governance arrangements and to better understand the role of such urban land reclamation projects in regional or national development pathwa